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Ethiopia Nigd Bank vs Mekelakeya — Premier League 2019

Ethiopia Nigd Bank
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mekelakeya
Mekelakeya
5/2/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 27Hawassa University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ethiopia Nigd Bank35%
×Draw28%
Mekelakeya37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.17
Mekelakeya
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 81 away

creates per match

Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.47
Mekelakeya
1.35

allows per match

Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.04
Mekelakeya
0.86

finishing

Ethiopia Nigd Bank+0.00on par
Mekelakeya+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ethiopia Nigd Bank ↓

Mekelakeya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ethiopia Nigd Bank or draw
63%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank or Mekelakeya
72%
Draw or Mekelakeya
65%

Winning margin

Ethiopia Nigd Bank wins by 2+
15%
Mekelakeya wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ethiopia Nigd Bank 1+ goals
69%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank 2+ goals
33%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank 3+ goals
11%
Mekelakeya 1+ goals
70%
Mekelakeya 2+ goals
34%
Mekelakeya 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ethiopia Nigd Bank (draw refunded)
49%
Mekelakeya (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ethiopia Nigd Bank at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

Mekelakeya away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.86 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ethiopia Nigd Bank attack 1.47 + Mekelakeya defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.17

Mekelakeya attack 1.35 + Ethiopia Nigd Bank defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ethiopia Nigd Bank scores more
35%
level
28%
Mekelakeya scores more
37%

Mekelakeya at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mekelakeya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ethiopia Nigd Bank vs Mekelakeya

Ethiopia Nigd Bank and Mekelakeya drew 0-0 in Premier League on May 2, 2025.

The match was played at Hawassa University Stadium in Hawassa.