Ethiopia Nigd Bank 1–1 Fasil Ketema: Result & Stats

Ethiopia Nigd Bank

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Fasil Ketema

10/24/2024

Premier League · Round 5Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ethiopia Nigd Bank39%

×Draw29%

Fasil Ketema33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ethiopia Nigd BankExpected goals in this matchFasil Ketema

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.06

Ethiopia Nigd Bank

1.18

Fasil Ketema

1.06

Ethiopia Nigd Bank creates 11% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 102 away

1.47

creates per match

1.08

1.04

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Ethiopia Nigd Bank

1.47

Fasil Ketema

1.08

allows per match

Ethiopia Nigd Bank

1.04

Fasil Ketema

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ethiopia Nigd Bank+0.00on par

Fasil Ketema+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ethiopia Nigd Bank ↓

Fasil Ketema →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ethiopia Nigd Bank or draw

67%

Ethiopia Nigd Bank or Fasil Ketema

71%

Draw or Fasil Ketema

61%

Winning margin

Ethiopia Nigd Bank wins by 2+

16%

Fasil Ketema wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ethiopia Nigd Bank 1+ goals

69%

Ethiopia Nigd Bank 2+ goals

33%

Ethiopia Nigd Bank 3+ goals

12%

Fasil Ketema 1+ goals

65%

Fasil Ketema 2+ goals

29%

Fasil Ketema 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ethiopia Nigd Bank (draw refunded)

54%

Fasil Ketema (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ethiopia Nigd Bank at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

Fasil Ketema away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.89 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ethiopia Nigd Bank attack 1.47 + Fasil Ketema defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.18

Fasil Ketema attack 1.08 + Ethiopia Nigd Bank defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ethiopia Nigd Bank scores more

39%

level

29%

Fasil Ketema scores more

33%

Ethiopia Nigd Bank at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ethiopia Nigd Bank will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff