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Ethiopia Nigd Bank vs Ethiopian Medhin — Premier League 2019

Ethiopia Nigd Bank
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ethiopian Medhin
Ethiopian Medhin
12/31/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Addis Abeba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ethiopia Nigd Bank34%
×Draw28%
Ethiopian Medhin38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.15
Ethiopian Medhin
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 66 away

creates per match

Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.47
Ethiopian Medhin
1.44

allows per match

Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.04
Ethiopian Medhin
0.82

finishing

Ethiopia Nigd Bank+0.00on par
Ethiopian Medhin+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ethiopia Nigd Bank ↓

Ethiopian Medhin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ethiopia Nigd Bank or draw
62%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank or Ethiopian Medhin
72%
Draw or Ethiopian Medhin
66%

Winning margin

Ethiopia Nigd Bank wins by 2+
14%
Ethiopian Medhin wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ethiopia Nigd Bank 1+ goals
68%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank 2+ goals
32%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank 3+ goals
11%
Ethiopian Medhin 1+ goals
71%
Ethiopian Medhin 2+ goals
35%
Ethiopian Medhin 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ethiopia Nigd Bank (draw refunded)
47%
Ethiopian Medhin (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ethiopia Nigd Bank at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

Ethiopian Medhin away — creates 1.44, concedes 0.82 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ethiopia Nigd Bank attack 1.47 + Ethiopian Medhin defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.15

Ethiopian Medhin attack 1.44 + Ethiopia Nigd Bank defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ethiopia Nigd Bank scores more
34%
level
28%
Ethiopian Medhin scores more
38%

Ethiopian Medhin at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ethiopian Medhin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ethiopia Nigd Bank 2–1 Ethiopian Medhin

Ethiopia Nigd Bank beat Ethiopian Medhin 2-1 in Premier League on December 31, 2025.

The match was played at Addis Abeba Stadium in Addis Abeba.