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Ethiopia Nigd Bank vs Adama Kenema — Premier League 2019

Ethiopia Nigd Bank
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Adama Kenema
Adama Kenema
3/3/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ethiopia Nigd Bank44%
×Draw27%
Adama Kenema29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.35
Adama Kenema
1.04

Ethiopia Nigd Bank creates 30% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 102 away

creates per match

Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.47
Adama Kenema
1.04

allows per match

Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.04
Adama Kenema
1.23

finishing

Ethiopia Nigd Bank+0.00on par
Adama Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ethiopia Nigd Bank ↓

Adama Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ethiopia Nigd Bank or draw
71%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank or Adama Kenema
73%
Draw or Adama Kenema
56%

Winning margin

Ethiopia Nigd Bank wins by 2+
20%
Adama Kenema wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ethiopia Nigd Bank 1+ goals
74%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank 2+ goals
39%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank 3+ goals
15%
Adama Kenema 1+ goals
65%
Adama Kenema 2+ goals
28%
Adama Kenema 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ethiopia Nigd Bank (draw refunded)
60%
Adama Kenema (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ethiopia Nigd Bank at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

Adama Kenema away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.23 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ethiopia Nigd Bank attack 1.47 + Adama Kenema defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.35

Adama Kenema attack 1.04 + Ethiopia Nigd Bank defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ethiopia Nigd Bank scores more
44%
level
27%
Adama Kenema scores more
29%

Ethiopia Nigd Bank at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ethiopia Nigd Bank will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ethiopia Nigd Bank vs Adama Kenema

Ethiopia Nigd Bank beat Adama Kenema 4-1 in Premier League on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Dire Dawa Stadium in Dire Dawa.