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Ethiopia Bunna vs Jimma Aba Jifar — Premier League 2019

Ethiopia Bunna
Ethiopia Bunna
FT
2 – 1
Jimma Aba Jifar
Jimma Aba Jifar
11/30/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Addis Ababa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Ethiopia Bunna50%
×Draw27%
Jimma Aba Jifar23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ethiopia Bunna
1.41
Jimma Aba Jifar
0.85

Ethiopia Bunna creates 66% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 35 away

creates per match

Ethiopia Bunna
1.47
Jimma Aba Jifar
0.71

allows per match

Ethiopia Bunna
0.99
Jimma Aba Jifar
1.34

finishing

Ethiopia Bunna+0.00on par
Jimma Aba Jifar+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ethiopia Bunna ↓

Jimma Aba Jifar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ethiopia Bunna or draw
77%
Ethiopia Bunna or Jimma Aba Jifar
73%
Draw or Jimma Aba Jifar
50%

Winning margin

Ethiopia Bunna wins by 2+
25%
Jimma Aba Jifar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ethiopia Bunna 1+ goals
76%
Ethiopia Bunna 2+ goals
41%
Ethiopia Bunna 3+ goals
17%
Jimma Aba Jifar 1+ goals
57%
Jimma Aba Jifar 2+ goals
21%
Jimma Aba Jifar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ethiopia Bunna (draw refunded)
69%
Jimma Aba Jifar (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ethiopia Bunna at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.99 · 101 matches

Jimma Aba Jifar away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ethiopia Bunna attack 1.47 + Jimma Aba Jifar defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.41

Jimma Aba Jifar attack 0.71 + Ethiopia Bunna defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ethiopia Bunna scores more
50%
level
27%
Jimma Aba Jifar scores more
23%

Ethiopia Bunna at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ethiopia Bunna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ethiopia Bunna vs Jimma Aba Jifar

Ethiopia Bunna beat Jimma Aba Jifar 2-1 in Premier League on November 30, 2021.

The match was played at Addis Ababa Stadium in Addis Abeba.