Ethiopia Bunna 6–1 Hambericho Durame

Ethiopia Bunna

FT

6 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Hambericho Durame

5/26/2024

Premier League · Round 26Hawassa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ethiopia Bunna60%

×Draw23%

Hambericho Durame17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ethiopia BunnaExpected goals in this matchHambericho Durame

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.83

Ethiopia Bunna

1.77

Hambericho Durame

0.83

Ethiopia Bunna creates 113% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 15 away

1.48

creates per match

0.67

0.99

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Ethiopia Bunna

1.48

Hambericho Durame

0.67

allows per match

Ethiopia Bunna

0.99

Hambericho Durame

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ethiopia Bunna+0.00on par

Hambericho Durame+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ethiopia Bunna ↓

Hambericho Durame →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Ethiopia Bunna or draw

83%

Ethiopia Bunna or Hambericho Durame

77%

Draw or Hambericho Durame

40%

Winning margin

Ethiopia Bunna wins by 2+

34%

Hambericho Durame wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Ethiopia Bunna 1+ goals

83%

Ethiopia Bunna 2+ goals

53%

Ethiopia Bunna 3+ goals

26%

Hambericho Durame 1+ goals

56%

Hambericho Durame 2+ goals

20%

Hambericho Durame 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ethiopia Bunna (draw refunded)

78%

Hambericho Durame (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ethiopia Bunna at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.99 · 100 matches

Hambericho Durame away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ethiopia Bunna attack 1.48 + Hambericho Durame defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.77

Hambericho Durame attack 0.67 + Ethiopia Bunna defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ethiopia Bunna scores more

60%

level

23%

Hambericho Durame scores more

17%

Ethiopia Bunna at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ethiopia Bunna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff