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Ethiopia Bunna vs Hadiya Hosaena — Premier League 2019

Ethiopia Bunna
Ethiopia Bunna
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Hadiya Hosaena
Hadiya Hosaena
1/15/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Ethiopia Bunna42%
×Draw29%
Hadiya Hosaena29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ethiopia Bunna
1.19
Hadiya Hosaena
0.93

Ethiopia Bunna creates 28% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 102 away

creates per match

Ethiopia Bunna
1.47
Hadiya Hosaena
0.87

allows per match

Ethiopia Bunna
0.99
Hadiya Hosaena
0.90

finishing

Ethiopia Bunna+0.00on par
Hadiya Hosaena+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ethiopia Bunna ↓

Hadiya Hosaena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ethiopia Bunna or draw
71%
Ethiopia Bunna or Hadiya Hosaena
71%
Draw or Hadiya Hosaena
58%

Winning margin

Ethiopia Bunna wins by 2+
18%
Hadiya Hosaena wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ethiopia Bunna 1+ goals
70%
Ethiopia Bunna 2+ goals
33%
Ethiopia Bunna 3+ goals
12%
Hadiya Hosaena 1+ goals
61%
Hadiya Hosaena 2+ goals
24%
Hadiya Hosaena 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ethiopia Bunna (draw refunded)
59%
Hadiya Hosaena (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ethiopia Bunna at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.99 · 101 matches

Hadiya Hosaena away — creates 0.87, concedes 0.90 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ethiopia Bunna attack 1.47 + Hadiya Hosaena defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.19

Hadiya Hosaena attack 0.87 + Ethiopia Bunna defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ethiopia Bunna scores more
42%
level
29%
Hadiya Hosaena scores more
29%

Ethiopia Bunna at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ethiopia Bunna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ethiopia Bunna 1–1 Hadiya Hosaena

Ethiopia Bunna and Hadiya Hosaena drew 1-1 in Premier League on January 15, 2024.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.