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Ethiopia Bunna vs Ethiopian Medhin — Premier League 2019

Ethiopia Bunna
Ethiopia Bunna
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ethiopian Medhin
Ethiopian Medhin
5/23/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 31Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Ethiopia Bunna35%
×Draw28%
Ethiopian Medhin37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ethiopia Bunna
1.15
Ethiopian Medhin
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 66 away

creates per match

Ethiopia Bunna
1.47
Ethiopian Medhin
1.44

allows per match

Ethiopia Bunna
0.99
Ethiopian Medhin
0.82

finishing

Ethiopia Bunna+0.00on par
Ethiopian Medhin+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ethiopia Bunna ↓

Ethiopian Medhin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ethiopia Bunna or draw
63%
Ethiopia Bunna or Ethiopian Medhin
72%
Draw or Ethiopian Medhin
65%

Winning margin

Ethiopia Bunna wins by 2+
14%
Ethiopian Medhin wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ethiopia Bunna 1+ goals
68%
Ethiopia Bunna 2+ goals
32%
Ethiopia Bunna 3+ goals
11%
Ethiopian Medhin 1+ goals
70%
Ethiopian Medhin 2+ goals
34%
Ethiopian Medhin 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ethiopia Bunna (draw refunded)
48%
Ethiopian Medhin (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ethiopia Bunna at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.99 · 101 matches

Ethiopian Medhin away — creates 1.44, concedes 0.82 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ethiopia Bunna attack 1.47 + Ethiopian Medhin defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.15

Ethiopian Medhin attack 1.44 + Ethiopia Bunna defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ethiopia Bunna scores more
35%
level
28%
Ethiopian Medhin scores more
37%

Ethiopian Medhin at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ethiopian Medhin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ethiopia Bunna 1–0 Ethiopian Medhin

Ethiopia Bunna beat Ethiopian Medhin 1-0 in Premier League on May 23, 2025.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.