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Ethiopia Bunna vs Bahardar — Premier League 2019

Ethiopia Bunna
Ethiopia Bunna
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Bahardar
Bahardar
1/29/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Ethiopia Bunna38%
×Draw29%
Bahardar33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ethiopia Bunna
1.16
Bahardar
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 103 away

creates per match

Ethiopia Bunna
1.47
Bahardar
1.16

allows per match

Ethiopia Bunna
0.99
Bahardar
0.85

finishing

Ethiopia Bunna+0.00on par
Bahardar+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ethiopia Bunna ↓

Bahardar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ethiopia Bunna or draw
67%
Ethiopia Bunna or Bahardar
71%
Draw or Bahardar
62%

Winning margin

Ethiopia Bunna wins by 2+
16%
Bahardar wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ethiopia Bunna 1+ goals
69%
Ethiopia Bunna 2+ goals
32%
Ethiopia Bunna 3+ goals
11%
Bahardar 1+ goals
66%
Bahardar 2+ goals
29%
Bahardar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ethiopia Bunna (draw refunded)
53%
Bahardar (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ethiopia Bunna at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.99 · 101 matches

Bahardar away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.85 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ethiopia Bunna attack 1.47 + Bahardar defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.16

Bahardar attack 1.16 + Ethiopia Bunna defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ethiopia Bunna scores more
38%
level
29%
Bahardar scores more
33%

Ethiopia Bunna at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ethiopia Bunna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ethiopia Bunna 3 – 1 Bahardar

Ethiopia Bunna beat Bahardar 3-1 in Premier League on January 29, 2025.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.