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Granitas Klaipėda vs Suduva Marijampole — A Lyga 2026

Granitas Klaipėda
Granitas Klaipėda
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
K. Laukžemis 16'
E. Veliulis 55'
V. Baranovskij 41'
5/26/2015A LygaA Lyga · Round 14Klaipėdos m. centrinis stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Granitas Klaipėda15%
×Draw18%
Suduva Marijampole67%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granitas Klaipėda
1.01
Suduva Marijampole
2.35

Suduva Marijampole creates 133% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 128 away

creates per match

Granitas Klaipėda
0.75
Suduva Marijampole
1.45

allows per match

Granitas Klaipėda
3.25
Suduva Marijampole
1.27

finishing

Granitas Klaipėda+0.00on par
Suduva Marijampole+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granitas Klaipėda ↓

Suduva Marijampole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–210%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Granitas Klaipėda or draw
33%
Granitas Klaipėda or Suduva Marijampole
82%
Draw or Suduva Marijampole
85%

Winning margin

Granitas Klaipėda wins by 2+
5%
Suduva Marijampole wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Granitas Klaipėda 1+ goals
64%
Granitas Klaipėda 2+ goals
27%
Granitas Klaipėda 3+ goals
8%
Suduva Marijampole 1+ goals
90%
Suduva Marijampole 2+ goals
68%
Suduva Marijampole 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Granitas Klaipėda (draw refunded)
18%
Suduva Marijampole (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granitas Klaipėda at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

Suduva Marijampole away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.27 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granitas Klaipėda attack 0.75 + Suduva Marijampole defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.01

Suduva Marijampole attack 1.45 + Granitas Klaipėda defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Granitas Klaipėda scores more
15%
level
18%
Suduva Marijampole scores more
67%

Suduva Marijampole at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Suduva Marijampole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
K. Laukžemis
41'
V. Baranovskij
55'
E. Veliulis

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Granitas Klaipėda vs Suduva Marijampole

Suduva Marijampole beat Granitas Klaipėda 2-1 in A Lyga on May 26, 2015.

Goals: K. Laukžemis (16'), V. Baranovskij (41'), E. Veliulis (55').

The match was played at Klaipėdos m. centrinis stadionas in Klaipėda.