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Eternel vs UPI-ONM — Championnat National 2019

Eternel
Eternel
FT
1 – 1
UPI-ONM
UPI-ONM
4/1/2021Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 16Stade Cotonou II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Eternel47%
×Draw30%
UPI-ONM23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eternel
1.23
UPI-ONM
0.76

Eternel creates 62% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 84 away

creates per match

Eternel
0.82
UPI-ONM
0.71

allows per match

Eternel
0.80
UPI-ONM
1.64

finishing

Eternel+0.00on par
UPI-ONM+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eternel ↓

UPI-ONM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Eternel or draw
77%
Eternel or UPI-ONM
70%
Draw or UPI-ONM
53%

Winning margin

Eternel wins by 2+
21%
UPI-ONM wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Eternel 1+ goals
71%
Eternel 2+ goals
35%
Eternel 3+ goals
13%
UPI-ONM 1+ goals
53%
UPI-ONM 2+ goals
18%
UPI-ONM 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Eternel (draw refunded)
67%
UPI-ONM (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eternel at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

UPI-ONM away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.64 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eternel attack 0.82 + UPI-ONM defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.23

UPI-ONM attack 0.71 + Eternel defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Eternel scores more
47%
level
30%
UPI-ONM scores more
23%

Eternel at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Eternel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eternel vs UPI-ONM

Eternel and UPI-ONM drew 1-1 in Championnat National on April 1, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Cotonou II in Porto-Novo.