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Eternel vs ASVO — Championnat National 2019

Eternel
Eternel
FT
1 – 2
ASVO
ASVO
6/9/2022Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Championship Round - 22Stade Cotonou II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Eternel33%
×Draw34%
ASVO33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eternel
0.84
ASVO
0.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 112 away

creates per match

Eternel
0.82
ASVO
0.89

allows per match

Eternel
0.80
ASVO
0.86

finishing

Eternel+0.00on par
ASVO+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eternel ↓

ASVO →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–116%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Eternel or draw
67%
Eternel or ASVO
66%
Draw or ASVO
67%

Winning margin

Eternel wins by 2+
11%
ASVO wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Eternel 1+ goals
57%
Eternel 2+ goals
21%
Eternel 3+ goals
5%
ASVO 1+ goals
57%
ASVO 2+ goals
21%
ASVO 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Eternel (draw refunded)
50%
ASVO (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eternel at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

ASVO away — creates 0.89, concedes 0.86 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eternel attack 0.82 + ASVO defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.84

ASVO attack 0.89 + Eternel defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Eternel scores more
33%
level
34%
ASVO scores more
33%

Eternel at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "Eternel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Eternel 1–2 ASVO

ASVO beat Eternel 2-1 in Championnat National on June 9, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Cotonou II in Porto-Novo.