Eternel 1–0 AS Sobemap: Result & Stats

Eternel

FT

1 – 0

AS Sobemap

3/19/2023

Championnat National · Relegation Round - 2Stade Cotonou II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Eternel35%

×Draw33%

AS Sobemap32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EternelExpected goals in this matchAS Sobemap

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

0.87

Eternel

0.91

AS Sobemap

0.87

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 109 away

0.82

creates per match

0.94

0.80

allows per match

0.99

creates per match

Eternel

0.82

AS Sobemap

0.94

allows per match

Eternel

0.80

AS Sobemap

0.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eternel+0.00on par

AS Sobemap+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eternel ↓

AS Sobemap →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–115%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

11%89%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Eternel or draw

68%

Eternel or AS Sobemap

67%

Draw or AS Sobemap

65%

Winning margin

Eternel wins by 2+

12%

AS Sobemap wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Eternel 1+ goals

60%

Eternel 2+ goals

23%

Eternel 3+ goals

6%

AS Sobemap 1+ goals

58%

AS Sobemap 2+ goals

22%

AS Sobemap 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Eternel (draw refunded)

52%

AS Sobemap (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eternel at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

AS Sobemap away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.99 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eternel attack 0.82 + AS Sobemap defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.91

AS Sobemap attack 0.94 + Eternel defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Eternel scores more

35%

level

33%

AS Sobemap scores more

32%

Eternel at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Eternel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff