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Etar VT II vs Yantra Polski Trambesh — Third League - Northwest 2018

Etar VT II
Etar VT II
FT
4 – 3
HT: 4 – 0
Yantra Polski Trambesh
Yantra Polski Trambesh
4/30/2025Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 18Stadion Ivailo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Etar VT II48%
×Draw22%
Yantra Polski Trambesh31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Etar VT II
2.00
Yantra Polski Trambesh
1.57

Etar VT II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 99 away

creates per match

Etar VT II
1.89
Yantra Polski Trambesh
1.40

allows per match

Etar VT II
1.75
Yantra Polski Trambesh
2.12

finishing

Etar VT II+0.00on par
Yantra Polski Trambesh+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etar VT II ↓

Yantra Polski Trambesh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Etar VT II or draw
69%
Etar VT II or Yantra Polski Trambesh
78%
Draw or Yantra Polski Trambesh
52%

Winning margin

Etar VT II wins by 2+
27%
Yantra Polski Trambesh wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Etar VT II 1+ goals
86%
Etar VT II 2+ goals
59%
Etar VT II 3+ goals
32%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 1+ goals
79%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 2+ goals
46%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Etar VT II (draw refunded)
61%
Yantra Polski Trambesh (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etar VT II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.75 · 83 matches

Yantra Polski Trambesh away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.12 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etar VT II attack 1.89 + Yantra Polski Trambesh defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.00

Yantra Polski Trambesh attack 1.40 + Etar VT II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Etar VT II scores more
48%
level
22%
Yantra Polski Trambesh scores more
31%

Etar VT II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Etar VT II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Etar VT II 4–3 Yantra Polski Trambesh

Etar VT II beat Yantra Polski Trambesh 4-3 in Third League - Northwest on April 30, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Ivailo in Veliko Târnovo.