Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Etar VT II vs Parva atomna — Third League - Northwest 2018

Etar VT II
Etar VT II
FT
3 – 0
Parva atomna
Parva atomna
5/30/2021Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 34Stadion Trifon Ivanov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Etar VT II58%
×Draw20%
Parva atomna22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Etar VT II
2.23
Parva atomna
1.30

Etar VT II creates 72% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 47 away

creates per match

Etar VT II
1.89
Parva atomna
0.85

allows per match

Etar VT II
1.75
Parva atomna
2.57

finishing

Etar VT II+0.00on par
Parva atomna+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etar VT II ↓

Parva atomna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Etar VT II or draw
78%
Etar VT II or Parva atomna
80%
Draw or Parva atomna
42%

Winning margin

Etar VT II wins by 2+
36%
Parva atomna wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Etar VT II 1+ goals
89%
Etar VT II 2+ goals
65%
Etar VT II 3+ goals
38%
Parva atomna 1+ goals
73%
Parva atomna 2+ goals
37%
Parva atomna 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Etar VT II (draw refunded)
73%
Parva atomna (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etar VT II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.75 · 83 matches

Parva atomna away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.57 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etar VT II attack 1.89 + Parva atomna defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.23

Parva atomna attack 0.85 + Etar VT II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Etar VT II scores more
58%
level
20%
Parva atomna scores more
22%

Etar VT II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Etar VT II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Etar VT II vs Parva atomna

Etar VT II beat Parva atomna 3-0 in Third League - Northwest on May 30, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Trifon Ivanov in Veliko Tarnovo.