Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3–0 Levski Lom: Result & Stats

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Levski Lom

7/26/2021

Second League · Round 1Stadion Ivailo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Etar Veliko Tarnovo70%

×Draw20%

Levski Lom10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Etar Veliko TarnovoExpected goals in this matchLevski Lom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.60

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

1.96

Levski Lom

0.60

Etar Veliko Tarnovo creates 227% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 13 away

1.77

creates per match

0.31

0.89

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

1.77

Levski Lom

0.31

allows per match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

0.89

Levski Lom

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Etar Veliko Tarnovo+0.00on par

Levski Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etar Veliko Tarnovo ↓

Levski Lom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Etar Veliko Tarnovo or draw

90%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo or Levski Lom

80%

Draw or Levski Lom

30%

Winning margin

Etar Veliko Tarnovo wins by 2+

44%

Levski Lom wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1+ goals

86%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2+ goals

58%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3+ goals

31%

Levski Lom 1+ goals

45%

Levski Lom 2+ goals

12%

Levski Lom 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Etar Veliko Tarnovo (draw refunded)

87%

Levski Lom (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etar Veliko Tarnovo at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.89 · 71 matches

Levski Lom away — creates 0.31, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo attack 1.77 + Levski Lom defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.96

Levski Lom attack 0.31 + Etar Veliko Tarnovo defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Etar Veliko Tarnovo scores more

70%

level

20%

Levski Lom scores more

10%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Etar Veliko Tarnovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3–0 Levski Lom

Etar Veliko Tarnovo beat Levski Lom 3-0 in Second League on July 26, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Ivailo in Veliko Târnovo.

Etar Veliko Tarnovo vs Levski Lom — Second League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Second League: Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3–0 Levski Lom