Etar Veliko Tarnovo vs CSKA Sofia II — Second League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 39+ matches
Etar Veliko Tarnovo47%
CSKA Sofia II27%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo creates 39% more chances
Season form · 73 home / 39 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Etar Veliko Tarnovo ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Etar Veliko Tarnovo at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.89 · 73 matches
CSKA Sofia II away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.33 · 39 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Etar Veliko Tarnovo attack 1.84 + CSKA Sofia II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.58
CSKA Sofia II attack 1.38 + Etar Veliko Tarnovo defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.14
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 47%?"
Etar Veliko Tarnovo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 47% does not mean "Etar Veliko Tarnovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Dunav Ruse
Yantra 2019
Fratria
VihrenCSKA Sofia II
Chernomorets 1919 BurgasEtar Veliko Tarnovo
Ludogorets II
Marek
Hebar 1918
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Spartak Pleven
Sportist Svoge
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Sevlievo
FK Minyor Pernik
BelasitsaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Etar Veliko Tarnovo host CSKA Sofia II on Sunday, 29 March 2026 at 13:30. The match is part of the Second League 2018/2019 season.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3 – 1 CSKA Sofia II
Etar Veliko Tarnovo beat CSKA Sofia II 3-1 in Second League on March 29, 2026.
Goals: S. Dobrev (19', 44'), I. Antonov (27'), S. Stoyanchov (51').
The match was played at Ivajlo Stadion in Veliko Tarnovo.