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Etar Veliko Tarnovo vs CSKA Sofia — First League 2026

Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia
10/30/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 14Stadion Ivailo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Etar Veliko Tarnovo27%
×Draw28%
CSKA Sofia45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Etar Veliko Tarnovo
0.96
CSKA Sofia
1.31

CSKA Sofia creates 36% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 133 away

creates per match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.08
CSKA Sofia
1.32

allows per match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.29
CSKA Sofia
0.83

finishing

Etar Veliko Tarnovo+0.00on par
CSKA Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etar Veliko Tarnovo ↓

CSKA Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Etar Veliko Tarnovo or draw
55%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo or CSKA Sofia
72%
Draw or CSKA Sofia
73%

Winning margin

Etar Veliko Tarnovo wins by 2+
10%
CSKA Sofia wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1+ goals
62%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2+ goals
25%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3+ goals
7%
CSKA Sofia 1+ goals
73%
CSKA Sofia 2+ goals
38%
CSKA Sofia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Etar Veliko Tarnovo (draw refunded)
38%
CSKA Sofia (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etar Veliko Tarnovo at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.29 · 66 matches

CSKA Sofia away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.83 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo attack 1.08 + CSKA Sofia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.96

CSKA Sofia attack 1.32 + Etar Veliko Tarnovo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Etar Veliko Tarnovo scores more
27%
level
28%
CSKA Sofia scores more
45%

CSKA Sofia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "CSKA Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Etar Veliko Tarnovo 0–4 CSKA Sofia

CSKA Sofia beat Etar Veliko Tarnovo 4-0 in First League on October 30, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Ivailo in Veliko Târnovo.