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Etar Veliko Tarnovo vs Botev Plovdiv II — Second League 2018

Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Botev Plovdiv II
Botev Plovdiv II
3/1/2025Second LeagueSecond League · Round 24Stadion Ivailo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Etar Veliko Tarnovo64%
×Draw22%
Botev Plovdiv II14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.85
Botev Plovdiv II
0.71

Etar Veliko Tarnovo creates 161% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 54 away

creates per match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.77
Botev Plovdiv II
0.52

allows per match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo
0.89
Botev Plovdiv II
1.93

finishing

Etar Veliko Tarnovo+0.00on par
Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etar Veliko Tarnovo ↓

Botev Plovdiv II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Etar Veliko Tarnovo or draw
86%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo or Botev Plovdiv II
78%
Draw or Botev Plovdiv II
36%

Winning margin

Etar Veliko Tarnovo wins by 2+
38%
Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1+ goals
84%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2+ goals
55%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3+ goals
28%
Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals
51%
Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals
16%
Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Etar Veliko Tarnovo (draw refunded)
82%
Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etar Veliko Tarnovo at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.89 · 71 matches

Botev Plovdiv II away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.93 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo attack 1.77 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.85

Botev Plovdiv II attack 0.52 + Etar Veliko Tarnovo defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Etar Veliko Tarnovo scores more
64%
level
22%
Botev Plovdiv II scores more
14%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Etar Veliko Tarnovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1–0 Botev Plovdiv II

Etar Veliko Tarnovo beat Botev Plovdiv II 1-0 in Second League on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Ivailo in Veliko Târnovo.