Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1–2 Botev Plovdiv

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Botev Plovdiv

N. Yankov 73'

A. Baroan 89'

I. Popov 66'

8/27/2023

First League · Round 7Stadion Ivailo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Etar Veliko Tarnovo38%

×Draw28%

Botev Plovdiv35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Etar Veliko TarnovoExpected goals in this matchBotev Plovdiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.17

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

1.23

Botev Plovdiv

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 136 away

1.08

creates per match

1.05

1.29

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

1.08

Botev Plovdiv

1.05

allows per match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

1.29

Botev Plovdiv

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Etar Veliko Tarnovo+0.00on par

Botev Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etar Veliko Tarnovo ↓

Botev Plovdiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Etar Veliko Tarnovo or draw

65%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo or Botev Plovdiv

72%

Draw or Botev Plovdiv

62%

Winning margin

Etar Veliko Tarnovo wins by 2+

16%

Botev Plovdiv wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1+ goals

71%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2+ goals

35%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3+ goals

13%

Botev Plovdiv 1+ goals

69%

Botev Plovdiv 2+ goals

33%

Botev Plovdiv 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Etar Veliko Tarnovo (draw refunded)

52%

Botev Plovdiv (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etar Veliko Tarnovo at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.29 · 66 matches

Botev Plovdiv away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.38 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo attack 1.08 + Botev Plovdiv defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.23

Botev Plovdiv attack 1.05 + Etar Veliko Tarnovo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Etar Veliko Tarnovo scores more

38%

level

28%

Botev Plovdiv scores more

35%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Etar Veliko Tarnovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

Ivelin Popov

59'

J. Eto'o← Y. Karabelyov

60'

61'

64'

66'

68'

A. Baroan← M. Sekulić

72'

N. Yankov← C. Boukholda

73'

I. Dimitrov← V. Naydenov

73'

N. Yankov

75'

M. Nikolov← K. Stoyanov

83'

Antoine Baroan

86'

G. Aleksandrov← M. Morán

86'

J. Betegón← K. Stanev

86'

N. Minkov← J. van Heertum

87'

Martin Nikolov

89'

A. Baroan

90+3'

Martin Toshev

Possession

Shots

Statistics

EtarBotev

Overview

46%Possession54%

11Total Shots13

2Corners7

14Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots13

3On Target4

6Off Target6

2Blocked3

Passing

46%Possession54%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls10

4Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides2