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Estudiantes vs Real Koyari — Division di Honor 2019

Estudiantes
Estudiantes
FT
10 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Real Koyari
Real Koyari
5/26/2026Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Group Stage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Estudiantes77%
×Draw12%
Real Koyari11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estudiantes
4.22
Real Koyari
1.69

Estudiantes creates 150% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Estudiantes
3.00
Real Koyari
0.78

allows per match

Estudiantes
2.60
Real Koyari
5.44

finishing

Estudiantes+0.00on par
Real Koyari+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes ↓

Real Koyari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–17%
4–26%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 66% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
82%18%4.5
66%34%

Double chance

Estudiantes or draw
89%
Estudiantes or Real Koyari
88%
Draw or Real Koyari
23%

Winning margin

Estudiantes wins by 2+
61%
Real Koyari wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Estudiantes 1+ goals
98%
Estudiantes 2+ goals
91%
Estudiantes 3+ goals
76%
Real Koyari 1+ goals
82%
Real Koyari 2+ goals
50%
Real Koyari 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes (draw refunded)
87%
Real Koyari (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Real Koyari away — creates 0.78, concedes 5.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes attack 3.00 + Real Koyari defence 5.44 → ÷2 → 4.22

Real Koyari attack 0.78 + Estudiantes defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Estudiantes scores more
77%
level
12%
Real Koyari scores more
11%

Estudiantes at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Estudiantes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division di Honor: Estudiantes 10–0 Real Koyari

Estudiantes beat Real Koyari 10-0 in Division di Honor on May 26, 2026.