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Estudiantes S.l. vs San Lorenzo Alem — Torneo Federal A 2018

Estudiantes S.l.
Estudiantes S.l.
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
San Lorenzo Alem
San Lorenzo Alem
3/14/2019Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · 2nd Phase Reválida 1 - 8Estadio Héctor Odicino Pedro Benoza (Ciudad de San Luis, Provincia de San Luis)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Estudiantes S.l.46%
×Draw27%
San Lorenzo Alem27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estudiantes S.l.
1.42
San Lorenzo Alem
1.02

Estudiantes S.l. creates 39% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 12 away

creates per match

Estudiantes S.l.
1.16
San Lorenzo Alem
1.00

allows per match

Estudiantes S.l.
1.03
San Lorenzo Alem
1.67

finishing

Estudiantes S.l.+0.00on par
San Lorenzo Alem+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes S.l. ↓

San Lorenzo Alem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Estudiantes S.l. or draw
73%
Estudiantes S.l. or San Lorenzo Alem
73%
Draw or San Lorenzo Alem
54%

Winning margin

Estudiantes S.l. wins by 2+
22%
San Lorenzo Alem wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Estudiantes S.l. 1+ goals
76%
Estudiantes S.l. 2+ goals
41%
Estudiantes S.l. 3+ goals
17%
San Lorenzo Alem 1+ goals
64%
San Lorenzo Alem 2+ goals
27%
San Lorenzo Alem 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes S.l. (draw refunded)
63%
San Lorenzo Alem (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes S.l. at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.03 · 100 matches

San Lorenzo Alem away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes S.l. attack 1.16 + San Lorenzo Alem defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.42

San Lorenzo Alem attack 1.00 + Estudiantes S.l. defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Estudiantes S.l. scores more
46%
level
27%
San Lorenzo Alem scores more
27%

Estudiantes S.l. at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Estudiantes S.l. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Estudiantes S.l. 2 – 1 San Lorenzo Alem

Estudiantes S.l. beat San Lorenzo Alem 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on March 14, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Héctor Odicino Pedro Benoza (Ciudad de San Luis, Provincia de San Luis).