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Estudiantes S.l. vs Racing Cordoba — Torneo Federal A 2018

Estudiantes S.l.
Estudiantes S.l.
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Racing Cordoba
Racing Cordoba
3/3/2019Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · 2nd Phase Reválida 1 - 6Estadio Héctor Odicino Pedro Benoza (Ciudad de San Luis, Provincia de San Luis)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Estudiantes S.l.34%
×Draw31%
Racing Cordoba34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estudiantes S.l.
0.98
Racing Cordoba
0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 43 away

creates per match

Estudiantes S.l.
1.16
Racing Cordoba
0.93

allows per match

Estudiantes S.l.
1.03
Racing Cordoba
0.81

finishing

Estudiantes S.l.+0.00on par
Racing Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes S.l. ↓

Racing Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Estudiantes S.l. or draw
66%
Estudiantes S.l. or Racing Cordoba
69%
Draw or Racing Cordoba
66%

Winning margin

Estudiantes S.l. wins by 2+
13%
Racing Cordoba wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Estudiantes S.l. 1+ goals
62%
Estudiantes S.l. 2+ goals
26%
Estudiantes S.l. 3+ goals
8%
Racing Cordoba 1+ goals
62%
Racing Cordoba 2+ goals
26%
Racing Cordoba 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes S.l. (draw refunded)
50%
Racing Cordoba (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes S.l. at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.03 · 100 matches

Racing Cordoba away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.81 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes S.l. attack 1.16 + Racing Cordoba defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.98

Racing Cordoba attack 0.93 + Estudiantes S.l. defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Estudiantes S.l. scores more
34%
level
31%
Racing Cordoba scores more
34%

Estudiantes S.l. at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Estudiantes S.l. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Estudiantes S.l. 1 – 0 Racing Cordoba

Estudiantes S.l. beat Racing Cordoba 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on March 3, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Héctor Odicino Pedro Benoza (Ciudad de San Luis, Provincia de San Luis).