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Estudiantes S.l. vs Independiente De Chivilcoy — Torneo Federal A 2018

Estudiantes S.l.
Estudiantes S.l.
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Independiente De Chivilcoy
Independiente De Chivilcoy
8/15/2021Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group A - 17Estadio Héctor Odicino Pedro Benoza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Estudiantes S.l.40%
×Draw31%
Independiente De Chivilcoy28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estudiantes S.l.
1.08
Independiente De Chivilcoy
0.85

Estudiantes S.l. creates 27% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 87 away

creates per match

Estudiantes S.l.
1.16
Independiente De Chivilcoy
0.67

allows per match

Estudiantes S.l.
1.03
Independiente De Chivilcoy
1.01

finishing

Estudiantes S.l.+0.00on par
Independiente De Chivilcoy+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes S.l. ↓

Independiente De Chivilcoy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Estudiantes S.l. or draw
72%
Estudiantes S.l. or Independiente De Chivilcoy
69%
Draw or Independiente De Chivilcoy
60%

Winning margin

Estudiantes S.l. wins by 2+
16%
Independiente De Chivilcoy wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Estudiantes S.l. 1+ goals
66%
Estudiantes S.l. 2+ goals
29%
Estudiantes S.l. 3+ goals
10%
Independiente De Chivilcoy 1+ goals
57%
Independiente De Chivilcoy 2+ goals
21%
Independiente De Chivilcoy 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes S.l. (draw refunded)
59%
Independiente De Chivilcoy (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes S.l. at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.03 · 100 matches

Independiente De Chivilcoy away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.01 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes S.l. attack 1.16 + Independiente De Chivilcoy defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.08

Independiente De Chivilcoy attack 0.67 + Estudiantes S.l. defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Estudiantes S.l. scores more
40%
level
31%
Independiente De Chivilcoy scores more
28%

Estudiantes S.l. at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Estudiantes S.l. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Estudiantes S.l. vs Independiente De Chivilcoy

Estudiantes S.l. beat Independiente De Chivilcoy 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on August 15, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Héctor Odicino Pedro Benoza in Ciudad de San Luis, Provincia de San Luis.