Estudiantes S.l. 0–0 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

Estudiantes S.l.

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

11/8/2018

Torneo Federal A · Zone 3 - 12Estadio Héctor Odicino Pedro Benoza (Ciudad de San Luis, Provincia de San Luis)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Estudiantes S.l.29%

×Draw32%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estudiantes S.l.Expected goals in this matchEstudiantes de Rio Cuarto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

1.02

Estudiantes S.l.

0.85

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

1.02

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto creates 20% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 13 away

1.16

creates per match

1.00

1.03

allows per match

0.54

creates per match

Estudiantes S.l.

1.16

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

1.00

allows per match

Estudiantes S.l.

1.03

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

0.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estudiantes S.l.+0.00on par

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes S.l. ↓

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–116%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Estudiantes S.l. or draw

61%

Estudiantes S.l. or Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

68%

Draw or Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

71%

Winning margin

Estudiantes S.l. wins by 2+

10%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Estudiantes S.l. 1+ goals

57%

Estudiantes S.l. 2+ goals

21%

Estudiantes S.l. 3+ goals

5%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 1+ goals

64%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 2+ goals

27%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes S.l. (draw refunded)

43%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes S.l. at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.03 · 100 matches

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes S.l. attack 1.16 + Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.85

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto attack 1.00 + Estudiantes S.l. defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Estudiantes S.l. scores more

29%

level

32%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto scores more

39%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff