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Estudiantes S.l. vs Deportivo Madryn — Torneo Federal A 2018

Estudiantes S.l.
Estudiantes S.l.
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Madryn
Deportivo Madryn
3/7/2020Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · South - 22Estadio Héctor Odicino Pedro Benoza (Ciudad de San Luis, Provincia de San Luis)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Estudiantes S.l.40%
×Draw29%
Deportivo Madryn30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estudiantes S.l.
1.19
Deportivo Madryn
0.99

Estudiantes S.l. creates 20% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 49 away

creates per match

Estudiantes S.l.
1.16
Deportivo Madryn
0.96

allows per match

Estudiantes S.l.
1.03
Deportivo Madryn
1.22

finishing

Estudiantes S.l.+0.00on par
Deportivo Madryn+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes S.l. ↓

Deportivo Madryn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Estudiantes S.l. or draw
70%
Estudiantes S.l. or Deportivo Madryn
71%
Draw or Deportivo Madryn
60%

Winning margin

Estudiantes S.l. wins by 2+
17%
Deportivo Madryn wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Estudiantes S.l. 1+ goals
70%
Estudiantes S.l. 2+ goals
33%
Estudiantes S.l. 3+ goals
12%
Deportivo Madryn 1+ goals
63%
Deportivo Madryn 2+ goals
26%
Deportivo Madryn 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes S.l. (draw refunded)
57%
Deportivo Madryn (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes S.l. at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.03 · 100 matches

Deportivo Madryn away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.22 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes S.l. attack 1.16 + Deportivo Madryn defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Deportivo Madryn attack 0.96 + Estudiantes S.l. defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Estudiantes S.l. scores more
40%
level
29%
Deportivo Madryn scores more
30%

Estudiantes S.l. at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Estudiantes S.l. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Estudiantes S.l. 1–0 Deportivo Madryn

Estudiantes S.l. beat Deportivo Madryn 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on March 7, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Héctor Odicino Pedro Benoza (Ciudad de San Luis, Provincia de San Luis).