Estudiantes S.l. 2–2 Cipolletti: Result & Stats

Estudiantes S.l.

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Cipolletti

9/14/2019

Torneo Federal A · South - 3Estadio Héctor Odicino Pedro Benoza (Ciudad de San Luis, Provincia de San Luis)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Estudiantes S.l.42%

×Draw30%

Cipolletti29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estudiantes S.l.Expected goals in this matchCipolletti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.92

Estudiantes S.l.

1.17

Cipolletti

0.92

Estudiantes S.l. creates 27% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 110 away

1.16

creates per match

0.80

1.03

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Estudiantes S.l.

1.16

Cipolletti

0.80

allows per match

Estudiantes S.l.

1.03

Cipolletti

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estudiantes S.l.+0.00on par

Cipolletti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes S.l. ↓

Cipolletti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Estudiantes S.l. or draw

71%

Estudiantes S.l. or Cipolletti

70%

Draw or Cipolletti

58%

Winning margin

Estudiantes S.l. wins by 2+

18%

Cipolletti wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Estudiantes S.l. 1+ goals

69%

Estudiantes S.l. 2+ goals

33%

Estudiantes S.l. 3+ goals

11%

Cipolletti 1+ goals

60%

Cipolletti 2+ goals

23%

Cipolletti 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes S.l. (draw refunded)

59%

Cipolletti (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes S.l. at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.03 · 100 matches

Cipolletti away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.18 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes S.l. attack 1.16 + Cipolletti defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Cipolletti attack 0.80 + Estudiantes S.l. defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Estudiantes S.l. scores more

42%

level

30%

Cipolletti scores more

29%

Estudiantes S.l. at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Estudiantes S.l. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff