Cipolletti 3–1 Estudiantes S.l.: Result & Stats

Cipolletti

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Estudiantes S.l.

8/21/2021

Torneo Federal A · Group A - 18Estadio La Visera de Cemento

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Cipolletti50%

×Draw29%

Estudiantes S.l.21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CipollettiExpected goals in this matchEstudiantes S.l.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.72

Cipolletti

1.29

Estudiantes S.l.

0.72

Cipolletti creates 79% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 103 away

1.28

creates per match

0.72

0.73

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Cipolletti

1.28

Estudiantes S.l.

0.72

allows per match

Cipolletti

0.73

Estudiantes S.l.

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cipolletti+0.00on par

Estudiantes S.l.+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cipolletti ↓

Estudiantes S.l. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Cipolletti or draw

79%

Cipolletti or Estudiantes S.l.

71%

Draw or Estudiantes S.l.

50%

Winning margin

Cipolletti wins by 2+

23%

Estudiantes S.l. wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Cipolletti 1+ goals

72%

Cipolletti 2+ goals

37%

Cipolletti 3+ goals

14%

Estudiantes S.l. 1+ goals

51%

Estudiantes S.l. 2+ goals

16%

Estudiantes S.l. 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Cipolletti (draw refunded)

71%

Estudiantes S.l. (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cipolletti at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.73 · 110 matches

Estudiantes S.l. away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.30 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cipolletti attack 1.28 + Estudiantes S.l. defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

Estudiantes S.l. attack 0.72 + Cipolletti defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cipolletti scores more

50%

level

29%

Estudiantes S.l. scores more

21%

Cipolletti at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cipolletti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff