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Estudiantes S.l. vs Barracas Central — Copa Argentina 2018

Estudiantes S.l.
Estudiantes S.l.
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Barracas Central
Barracas Central
9/19/2019Copa ArgentinaCopa Argentina · 16th FinalsEstadio Alfredo Martín Beranger (Temperley, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Estudiantes S.l.39%
×Draw32%
Barracas Central29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estudiantes S.l.
1.03
Barracas Central
0.83

Estudiantes S.l. creates 24% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Estudiantes S.l.
1.40
Barracas Central
0.67

allows per match

Estudiantes S.l.
1.00
Barracas Central
0.67

finishing

Estudiantes S.l.+0.00on par
Barracas Central+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes S.l. ↓

Barracas Central →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Estudiantes S.l. or draw
71%
Estudiantes S.l. or Barracas Central
68%
Draw or Barracas Central
61%

Winning margin

Estudiantes S.l. wins by 2+
15%
Barracas Central wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Estudiantes S.l. 1+ goals
64%
Estudiantes S.l. 2+ goals
28%
Estudiantes S.l. 3+ goals
9%
Barracas Central 1+ goals
56%
Barracas Central 2+ goals
20%
Barracas Central 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes S.l. (draw refunded)
58%
Barracas Central (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes S.l. at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Barracas Central away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes S.l. attack 1.40 + Barracas Central defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.03

Barracas Central attack 0.67 + Estudiantes S.l. defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Estudiantes S.l. scores more
39%
level
32%
Barracas Central scores more
29%

Estudiantes S.l. at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Estudiantes S.l. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Argentina: Estudiantes S.l. 2–0 Barracas Central

Estudiantes S.l. beat Barracas Central 2-0 in Copa Argentina on September 19, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Alfredo Martín Beranger (Temperley, Provincia de Buenos Aires).