Estudiantes La Plata Res vs Unión Santa Fe Res. — Reserve League 2022
Reserve League · 1st Phase - 2Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 61+ matches
Estudiantes La Plata Res49%
Unión Santa Fe Res.25%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Estudiantes La Plata Res creates 50% more chances
Season form · 67 home / 61 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under53
- Over47
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Estudiantes La Plata Res ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Estudiantes La Plata Res at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.97 · 67 matches
Unión Santa Fe Res. away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.49 · 61 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Estudiantes La Plata Res attack 1.57 + Unión Santa Fe Res. defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.53
Unión Santa Fe Res. attack 1.07 + Estudiantes La Plata Res defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.02
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Estudiantes La Plata Res at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Estudiantes La Plata Res will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
River Plate Res.
Vélez Sársfield Res.
Rosario Central Res.
San Martín San Juan Res.
San Lorenzo Res.
Lanús Res.
Instituto Res.
Atlético Tucumán Res.
Gimnasia La Plata Res.
Talleres Córdoba Res.
Deportivo Riestra Res.
Sarmiento Res.
Godoy Cruz Res.
Independiente Res.
Platense Res.
Boca Juniors Res.Estudiantes La Plata Res
Belgrano Córdoba Res.
Newell's Old Boys Res.
Huracán Res.Unión Santa Fe Res.
Tigre Res.
Aldosivi Res.
Defensa y Justicia Res.
Banfield Res.
Argentinos Juniors Res.
Barracas Central Res.
Independiente Riva. Res.
Racing Club Res.
Central Córdoba SdE Res.Boca Juniors Res.Belgrano Córdoba Res.Huracán Res.Unión Santa Fe Res.Racing Club Res.Newell's Old Boys Res.Tigre Res.Argentinos Juniors Res.Independiente Riva. Res.Barracas Central Res.
Colón Res.Estudiantes La Plata ResCentral Córdoba SdE Res.Banfield Res.Aldosivi Res.Defensa y Justicia Res.Rosario Central Res.River Plate Res.Gimnasia La Plata Res.Instituto Res.Atlético Tucumán Res.Independiente Res.San Lorenzo Res.Lanús Res.Platense Res.Godoy Cruz Res.Vélez Sársfield Res.Talleres Córdoba Res.Sarmiento Res.San Martín San Juan Res.
Ferro 2Deportivo Riestra Res.If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Estudiantes La Plata Res host Unión Santa Fe Res. on Thursday, 22 February 2024 at 20:00. The match is part of the Reserve League 2022/2023 season.
Reserve League: Estudiantes La Plata Res 2–1 Unión Santa Fe Res.
Estudiantes La Plata Res beat Unión Santa Fe Res. 2-1 in Reserve League on February 22, 2024.