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Estudiantes L.P. vs Argentino Monte Maíz — Copa Argentina 2026

Estudiantes L.P.
Estudiantes L.P.
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Argentino Monte Maíz
Argentino Monte Maíz
1/25/2024Copa ArgentinaCopa Argentina · 1st RoundEstadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Estudiantes L.P.86%
×Draw11%
Argentino Monte Maíz3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estudiantes L.P.
2.75
Argentino Monte Maíz
0.38

Estudiantes L.P. creates 624% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

creates per match

Estudiantes L.P.
2.50
Argentino Monte Maíz
0.00

allows per match

Estudiantes L.P.
0.75
Argentino Monte Maíz
3.00

finishing

Estudiantes L.P.+0.00on par
Argentino Monte Maíz+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes L.P. ↓

Argentino Monte Maíz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–016%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (17%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Estudiantes L.P. or draw
97%
Estudiantes L.P. or Argentino Monte Maíz
89%
Draw or Argentino Monte Maíz
14%

Winning margin

Estudiantes L.P. wins by 2+
66%
Argentino Monte Maíz wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Estudiantes L.P. 1+ goals
93%
Estudiantes L.P. 2+ goals
75%
Estudiantes L.P. 3+ goals
51%
Argentino Monte Maíz 1+ goals
32%
Argentino Monte Maíz 2+ goals
6%
Argentino Monte Maíz 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes L.P. (draw refunded)
96%
Argentino Monte Maíz (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes L.P. at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Argentino Monte Maíz away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes L.P. attack 2.50 + Argentino Monte Maíz defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.75

Argentino Monte Maíz attack 0.00 + Estudiantes L.P. defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Estudiantes L.P. scores more
86%
level
11%
Argentino Monte Maíz scores more
3%

Estudiantes L.P. at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Estudiantes L.P. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Argentina: Estudiantes L.P. 3–0 Argentino Monte Maíz

Estudiantes L.P. beat Argentino Monte Maíz 3-0 in Copa Argentina on January 25, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez in Lanús, Provincia de Buenos Aires.