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Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Deportivo Riestra — Primera Nacional 2026

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Riestra
Deportivo Riestra
10/26/2021Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 31Estadio Ciudad de Río Cuarto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto43%
×Draw32%
Deportivo Riestra26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
1.09
Deportivo Riestra
0.77

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto creates 42% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 70 away

creates per match

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
1.15
Deportivo Riestra
0.86

allows per match

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
0.67
Deportivo Riestra
1.04

finishing

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto+0.00on par
Deportivo Riestra+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto ↓

Deportivo Riestra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto or draw
74%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto or Deportivo Riestra
68%
Draw or Deportivo Riestra
57%

Winning margin

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto wins by 2+
18%
Deportivo Riestra wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 1+ goals
66%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 2+ goals
30%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 3+ goals
10%
Deportivo Riestra 1+ goals
54%
Deportivo Riestra 2+ goals
18%
Deportivo Riestra 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (draw refunded)
63%
Deportivo Riestra (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.67 · 113 matches

Deportivo Riestra away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.04 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto attack 1.15 + Deportivo Riestra defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.09

Deportivo Riestra attack 0.86 + Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto scores more
43%
level
32%
Deportivo Riestra scores more
26%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Deportivo Riestra

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto beat Deportivo Riestra 2-0 in Primera Nacional on October 26, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Río Cuarto in Ciudad de Río Cuarto, Provincia de Córdoba.