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Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Deportivo Madryn — Primera Nacional 2026

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Madryn
Deportivo Madryn
8/2/2022Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 27Estadio Ciudad de Río Cuarto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto42%
×Draw32%
Deportivo Madryn26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
1.08
Deportivo Madryn
0.78

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto creates 38% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 84 away

creates per match

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
1.15
Deportivo Madryn
0.89

allows per match

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
0.67
Deportivo Madryn
1.01

finishing

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto+0.00on par
Deportivo Madryn+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto ↓

Deportivo Madryn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto or draw
74%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto or Deportivo Madryn
68%
Draw or Deportivo Madryn
58%

Winning margin

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto wins by 2+
17%
Deportivo Madryn wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 1+ goals
66%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 2+ goals
29%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 3+ goals
10%
Deportivo Madryn 1+ goals
54%
Deportivo Madryn 2+ goals
18%
Deportivo Madryn 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (draw refunded)
62%
Deportivo Madryn (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.67 · 113 matches

Deportivo Madryn away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.01 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto attack 1.15 + Deportivo Madryn defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.08

Deportivo Madryn attack 0.89 + Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto scores more
42%
level
32%
Deportivo Madryn scores more
26%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Deportivo Madryn

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto and Deportivo Madryn drew 1-1 in Primera Nacional on August 2, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Río Cuarto in Ciudad de Río Cuarto, Provincia de Córdoba.