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Estudiantes de Merida FC vs CD Hermanos Colmenarez — Primera División 2018

Estudiantes de Merida FC
Estudiantes de Merida FC
FT
6 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
6/13/2021Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 9Estadio Olímpico Metropolitano de Mérida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Estudiantes de Merida FC48%
×Draw26%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.50
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.03

Estudiantes de Merida FC creates 46% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 64 away

creates per match

Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.51
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
0.98

allows per match

Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.08
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.48

finishing

Estudiantes de Merida FC+0.00on par
CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes de Merida FC ↓

CD Hermanos Colmenarez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Estudiantes de Merida FC or draw
74%
Estudiantes de Merida FC or CD Hermanos Colmenarez
74%
Draw or CD Hermanos Colmenarez
52%

Winning margin

Estudiantes de Merida FC wins by 2+
24%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Estudiantes de Merida FC 1+ goals
78%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 2+ goals
44%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 3+ goals
19%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals
64%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals
28%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes de Merida FC (draw refunded)
65%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes de Merida FC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.08 · 140 matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.48 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes de Merida FC attack 1.51 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.50

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 0.98 + Estudiantes de Merida FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Estudiantes de Merida FC scores more
48%
level
26%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more
26%

Estudiantes de Merida FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Estudiantes de Merida FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Estudiantes de Merida FC 6–2 CD Hermanos Colmenarez

Estudiantes de Merida FC beat CD Hermanos Colmenarez 6-2 in Primera División on June 13, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Metropolitano de Mérida in Mérida.