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CD Hermanos Colmenarez vs Estudiantes de Merida FC — Copa Venezuela 2024

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Estudiantes de Merida FC
Estudiantes de Merida FC
6/20/2024Copa VenezuelaCopa Venezuela · Group Stage - 3Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez26%
×Draw32%
Estudiantes de Merida FC42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
0.77
Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.06

Estudiantes de Merida FC creates 38% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.33
Estudiantes de Merida FC
0.80

allows per match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.33
Estudiantes de Merida FC
0.20

finishing

CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par
Estudiantes de Merida FC+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Hermanos Colmenarez ↓

Estudiantes de Merida FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–117%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

CD Hermanos Colmenarez or draw
58%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez or Estudiantes de Merida FC
68%
Draw or Estudiantes de Merida FC
74%

Winning margin

CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+
8%
Estudiantes de Merida FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals
54%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals
18%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals
4%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 1+ goals
65%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 2+ goals
29%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)
38%
Estudiantes de Merida FC (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Hermanos Colmenarez at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Estudiantes de Merida FC away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 1.33 + Estudiantes de Merida FC defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.77

Estudiantes de Merida FC attack 0.80 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more
26%
level
32%
Estudiantes de Merida FC scores more
42%

Estudiantes de Merida FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Estudiantes de Merida FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CD Hermanos Colmenarez vs Estudiantes de Merida FC

CD Hermanos Colmenarez and Estudiantes de Merida FC drew 0-0 in Copa Venezuela on June 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar in Barinas.