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Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Carabobo FC — Primera División 2018

Estudiantes de Merida FC
Estudiantes de Merida FC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Carabobo FC
Carabobo FC
1/25/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 1Estadio Olímpico Metropolitano de Mérida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 140+ matches

Estudiantes de Merida FC42%
×Draw28%
Carabobo FC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.30
Carabobo FC
1.08

Estudiantes de Merida FC creates 20% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 145 away

creates per match

Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.51
Carabobo FC
1.09

allows per match

Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.08
Carabobo FC
1.09

finishing

Estudiantes de Merida FC+0.00on par
Carabobo FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes de Merida FC ↓

Carabobo FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Estudiantes de Merida FC or draw
69%
Estudiantes de Merida FC or Carabobo FC
72%
Draw or Carabobo FC
58%

Winning margin

Estudiantes de Merida FC wins by 2+
19%
Carabobo FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Estudiantes de Merida FC 1+ goals
73%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 2+ goals
37%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 3+ goals
14%
Carabobo FC 1+ goals
66%
Carabobo FC 2+ goals
29%
Carabobo FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes de Merida FC (draw refunded)
57%
Carabobo FC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes de Merida FC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.08 · 140 matches

Carabobo FC away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.09 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes de Merida FC attack 1.51 + Carabobo FC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.30

Carabobo FC attack 1.09 + Estudiantes de Merida FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Estudiantes de Merida FC scores more
42%
level
28%
Carabobo FC scores more
31%

Estudiantes de Merida FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Estudiantes de Merida FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Carabobo FC

Carabobo FC beat Estudiantes de Merida FC 2-0 in Primera División on January 25, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Metropolitano de Mérida in Mérida.