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Estrella vs Sporting — Division di Honor 2019

Estrella
Estrella
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Sporting
Sporting
11/2/2025Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Estrella20%
×Draw17%
Sporting63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estrella
1.73
Sporting
3.05

Sporting creates 76% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 12 away

creates per match

Estrella
1.70
Sporting
3.00

allows per match

Estrella
3.11
Sporting
1.75

finishing

Estrella+0.00on par
Sporting+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estrella ↓

Sporting →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Estrella or draw
37%
Estrella or Sporting
83%
Draw or Sporting
80%

Winning margin

Estrella wins by 2+
9%
Sporting wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Estrella 1+ goals
82%
Estrella 2+ goals
52%
Estrella 3+ goals
25%
Sporting 1+ goals
95%
Sporting 2+ goals
80%
Sporting 3+ goals
57%

Draw no bet

Estrella (draw refunded)
24%
Sporting (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estrella at home — creates 1.70, concedes 3.11 · 56 matches

Sporting away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estrella attack 1.70 + Sporting defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.73

Sporting attack 3.00 + Estrella defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 3.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Estrella scores more
20%
level
17%
Sporting scores more
63%

Sporting at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Sporting will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division di Honor: Estrella 1–3 Sporting

Sporting beat Estrella 3-1 in Division di Honor on November 2, 2025.