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Estrella vs San Miguel — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Estrella
Estrella
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
San Miguel
San Miguel
2/22/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 23Estadio Las Palmitas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Estrella44%
×Draw28%
San Miguel28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estrella
1.34
San Miguel
1.01

Estrella creates 33% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 17 away

creates per match

Estrella
0.97
San Miguel
0.59

allows per match

Estrella
1.44
San Miguel
1.71

finishing

Estrella+0.00on par
San Miguel+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estrella ↓

San Miguel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Estrella or draw
72%
Estrella or San Miguel
72%
Draw or San Miguel
56%

Winning margin

Estrella wins by 2+
21%
San Miguel wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Estrella 1+ goals
74%
Estrella 2+ goals
39%
Estrella 3+ goals
15%
San Miguel 1+ goals
64%
San Miguel 2+ goals
27%
San Miguel 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Estrella (draw refunded)
61%
San Miguel (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estrella at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

San Miguel away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estrella attack 0.97 + San Miguel defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.34

San Miguel attack 0.59 + Estrella defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Estrella scores more
44%
level
28%
San Miguel scores more
28%

Estrella at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Estrella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Estrella vs San Miguel

Estrella beat San Miguel 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on February 22, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Las Palmitas in Gran Canaria.