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Estrella vs San Bartolomé — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Estrella
Estrella
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
San Bartolomé
San Bartolomé
12/21/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 16Estadio Las Palmitas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Estrella38%
×Draw27%
San Bartolomé35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estrella
1.30
San Bartolomé
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 51 away

creates per match

Estrella
0.97
San Bartolomé
1.00

allows per match

Estrella
1.44
San Bartolomé
1.63

finishing

Estrella+0.00on par
San Bartolomé+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estrella ↓

San Bartolomé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Estrella or draw
65%
Estrella or San Bartolomé
73%
Draw or San Bartolomé
62%

Winning margin

Estrella wins by 2+
17%
San Bartolomé wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Estrella 1+ goals
73%
Estrella 2+ goals
37%
Estrella 3+ goals
14%
San Bartolomé 1+ goals
70%
San Bartolomé 2+ goals
34%
San Bartolomé 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Estrella (draw refunded)
53%
San Bartolomé (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estrella at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

San Bartolomé away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.63 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estrella attack 0.97 + San Bartolomé defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.30

San Bartolomé attack 1.00 + Estrella defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Estrella scores more
38%
level
27%
San Bartolomé scores more
35%

Estrella at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Estrella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Estrella 2–1 San Bartolomé

Estrella beat San Bartolomé 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on December 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Las Palmitas in Gran Canaria.