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Estrella vs Real Koyari — Division di Honor 2019

Estrella
Estrella
FT
8 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Real Koyari
Real Koyari
11/16/2025Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Estrella66%
×Draw15%
Real Koyari19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estrella
3.57
Real Koyari
1.94

Estrella creates 84% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 9 away

creates per match

Estrella
1.70
Real Koyari
0.78

allows per match

Estrella
3.11
Real Koyari
5.44

finishing

Estrella+0.00on par
Real Koyari+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estrella ↓

Real Koyari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–26%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (6%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
78%22%4.5
62%38%

Double chance

Estrella or draw
81%
Estrella or Real Koyari
85%
Draw or Real Koyari
34%

Winning margin

Estrella wins by 2+
48%
Real Koyari wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Estrella 1+ goals
97%
Estrella 2+ goals
86%
Estrella 3+ goals
67%
Real Koyari 1+ goals
86%
Real Koyari 2+ goals
58%
Real Koyari 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Estrella (draw refunded)
78%
Real Koyari (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estrella at home — creates 1.70, concedes 3.11 · 56 matches

Real Koyari away — creates 0.78, concedes 5.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estrella attack 1.70 + Real Koyari defence 5.44 → ÷2 → 3.57

Real Koyari attack 0.78 + Estrella defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Estrella scores more
66%
level
15%
Real Koyari scores more
19%

Estrella at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Estrella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Estrella vs Real Koyari

Estrella beat Real Koyari 8-1 in Division di Honor on November 16, 2025.