Estrella 0–0 Panadería Pulido: Result & Stats

Estrella

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Panadería Pulido

10/21/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 7Estadio Las Palmitas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Estrella30%

×Draw27%

Panadería Pulido43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EstrellaExpected goals in this matchPanadería Pulido

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.38

Estrella

1.09

Panadería Pulido

1.38

Panadería Pulido creates 27% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 94 away

0.97

creates per match

1.31

1.44

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Estrella

0.97

Panadería Pulido

1.31

allows per match

Estrella

1.44

Panadería Pulido

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estrella+0.00on par

Panadería Pulido+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estrella ↓

Panadería Pulido →

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Estrella or draw

57%

Estrella or Panadería Pulido

73%

Draw or Panadería Pulido

70%

Winning margin

Estrella wins by 2+

12%

Panadería Pulido wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Estrella 1+ goals

66%

Estrella 2+ goals

30%

Estrella 3+ goals

10%

Panadería Pulido 1+ goals

75%

Panadería Pulido 2+ goals

40%

Panadería Pulido 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Estrella (draw refunded)

41%

Panadería Pulido (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Estrella at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

Panadería Pulido away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.21 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Estrella attack 0.97 + Panadería Pulido defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.09

Panadería Pulido attack 1.31 + Estrella defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Estrella scores more

30%

level

27%

Panadería Pulido scores more

43%

Panadería Pulido at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Panadería Pulido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff