Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Estrella vs Los Llanos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Estrella
Estrella
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Los Llanos
Los Llanos
2/8/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 21Estadio Las Palmitas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Estrella48%
×Draw27%
Los Llanos25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estrella
1.40
Los Llanos
0.92

Estrella creates 52% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 17 away

creates per match

Estrella
0.97
Los Llanos
0.41

allows per match

Estrella
1.44
Los Llanos
1.82

finishing

Estrella+0.00on par
Los Llanos+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estrella ↓

Los Llanos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Estrella or draw
75%
Estrella or Los Llanos
73%
Draw or Los Llanos
52%

Winning margin

Estrella wins by 2+
23%
Los Llanos wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Estrella 1+ goals
75%
Estrella 2+ goals
41%
Estrella 3+ goals
17%
Los Llanos 1+ goals
60%
Los Llanos 2+ goals
23%
Los Llanos 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Estrella (draw refunded)
66%
Los Llanos (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estrella at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

Los Llanos away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estrella attack 0.97 + Los Llanos defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.40

Los Llanos attack 0.41 + Estrella defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Estrella scores more
48%
level
27%
Los Llanos scores more
25%

Estrella at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Estrella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Estrella vs Los Llanos

Estrella and Los Llanos drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on February 8, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Las Palmitas in Gran Canaria.