Estrella 1–1 Caravel: Result & Stats

Estrella

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Caravel

2/12/2022

Division di Honor · Round 10Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Estrella37%

×Draw20%

Caravel43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EstrellaExpected goals in this matchCaravel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

2.34

Estrella

2.17

Caravel

2.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 28 away

1.70

creates per match

1.57

3.11

allows per match

2.64

creates per match

Estrella

1.70

Caravel

1.57

allows per match

Estrella

3.11

Caravel

2.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estrella+0.00on par

Caravel+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estrella ↓

Caravel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Estrella or draw

57%

Estrella or Caravel

80%

Draw or Caravel

63%

Winning margin

Estrella wins by 2+

21%

Caravel wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Estrella 1+ goals

89%

Estrella 2+ goals

64%

Estrella 3+ goals

36%

Caravel 1+ goals

90%

Caravel 2+ goals

67%

Caravel 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Estrella (draw refunded)

46%

Caravel (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estrella at home — creates 1.70, concedes 3.11 · 56 matches

Caravel away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.64 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estrella attack 1.70 + Caravel defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.17

Caravel attack 1.57 + Estrella defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Estrella scores more

37%

level

20%

Caravel scores more

43%

Caravel at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Caravel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff