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Estrella vs Caiquetio — Division di Honor 2019

Estrella
Estrella
FT
1 – 2
Caiquetio
Caiquetio
5/21/2026Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Group Stage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Estrella26%
×Draw21%
Caiquetio53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estrella
1.48
Caiquetio
2.15

Caiquetio creates 45% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 11 away

creates per match

Estrella
1.70
Caiquetio
1.18

allows per match

Estrella
3.11
Caiquetio
1.27

finishing

Estrella+0.00on par
Caiquetio+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estrella ↓

Caiquetio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Estrella or draw
47%
Estrella or Caiquetio
79%
Draw or Caiquetio
74%

Winning margin

Estrella wins by 2+
12%
Caiquetio wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Estrella 1+ goals
77%
Estrella 2+ goals
43%
Estrella 3+ goals
19%
Caiquetio 1+ goals
88%
Caiquetio 2+ goals
63%
Caiquetio 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Estrella (draw refunded)
33%
Caiquetio (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estrella at home — creates 1.70, concedes 3.11 · 56 matches

Caiquetio away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estrella attack 1.70 + Caiquetio defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.48

Caiquetio attack 1.18 + Estrella defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Estrella scores more
26%
level
21%
Caiquetio scores more
53%

Caiquetio at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Caiquetio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Estrella vs Caiquetio

Caiquetio beat Estrella 2-1 in Division di Honor on May 21, 2026.