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Estrella vs Brazil Juniors — Division di Honor 2019

Estrella
Estrella
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Brazil Juniors
Brazil Juniors
4/2/2026Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Relegation - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Estrella36%
×Draw19%
Brazil Juniors45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estrella
2.24
Brazil Juniors
2.50

Brazil Juniors creates 12% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 9 away

creates per match

Estrella
1.70
Brazil Juniors
1.89

allows per match

Estrella
3.11
Brazil Juniors
2.78

finishing

Estrella+0.00on par
Brazil Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estrella ↓

Brazil Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Estrella or draw
55%
Estrella or Brazil Juniors
81%
Draw or Brazil Juniors
64%

Winning margin

Estrella wins by 2+
20%
Brazil Juniors wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Estrella 1+ goals
89%
Estrella 2+ goals
65%
Estrella 3+ goals
38%
Brazil Juniors 1+ goals
92%
Brazil Juniors 2+ goals
71%
Brazil Juniors 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Estrella (draw refunded)
45%
Brazil Juniors (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estrella at home — creates 1.70, concedes 3.11 · 56 matches

Brazil Juniors away — creates 1.89, concedes 2.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estrella attack 1.70 + Brazil Juniors defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.24

Brazil Juniors attack 1.89 + Estrella defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Estrella scores more
36%
level
19%
Brazil Juniors scores more
45%

Brazil Juniors at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Brazil Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Estrella vs Brazil Juniors

Estrella beat Brazil Juniors 2-1 in Division di Honor on April 2, 2026.