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Estrella Del Sur vs Provincial — Torneo Promocional Amateur 2026

Estrella Del Sur
Estrella Del Sur
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Provincial
Provincial
7/20/2024Torneo Promocional AmateurTorneo Promocional Amateur · Clausura - 1Predio Club Estrella Del Sur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Estrella Del Sur59%
×Draw24%
Provincial18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estrella Del Sur
1.73
Provincial
0.82

Estrella Del Sur creates 111% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 21 away

creates per match

Estrella Del Sur
1.69
Provincial
1.19

allows per match

Estrella Del Sur
0.46
Provincial
1.76

finishing

Estrella Del Sur+0.00on par
Provincial+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estrella Del Sur ↓

Provincial →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Estrella Del Sur or draw
82%
Estrella Del Sur or Provincial
76%
Draw or Provincial
41%

Winning margin

Estrella Del Sur wins by 2+
33%
Provincial wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Estrella Del Sur 1+ goals
82%
Estrella Del Sur 2+ goals
52%
Estrella Del Sur 3+ goals
25%
Provincial 1+ goals
56%
Provincial 2+ goals
20%
Provincial 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Estrella Del Sur (draw refunded)
77%
Provincial (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estrella Del Sur at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.46 · 13 matches

Provincial away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estrella Del Sur attack 1.69 + Provincial defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.73

Provincial attack 1.19 + Estrella Del Sur defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Estrella Del Sur scores more
59%
level
24%
Provincial scores more
18%

Estrella Del Sur at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Estrella Del Sur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Estrella Del Sur vs Provincial

Estrella Del Sur beat Provincial 1-0 in Torneo Promocional Amateur on July 20, 2024.

The match was played at Predio Club Estrella Del Sur in Alejandro Korn, Provincia de Buenos Aires.