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Estrella Del Sur vs Juventud de Bernal — Torneo Promocional Amateur 2026

Estrella Del Sur
Estrella Del Sur
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Juventud de Bernal
Juventud de Bernal
3/2/2024Torneo Promocional AmateurTorneo Promocional Amateur · Apertura - 2Predio Club Estrella Del Sur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Estrella Del Sur62%
×Draw23%
Juventud de Bernal15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estrella Del Sur
1.73
Juventud de Bernal
0.70

Estrella Del Sur creates 147% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 22 away

creates per match

Estrella Del Sur
1.69
Juventud de Bernal
0.95

allows per match

Estrella Del Sur
0.46
Juventud de Bernal
1.77

finishing

Estrella Del Sur+0.00on par
Juventud de Bernal+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estrella Del Sur ↓

Juventud de Bernal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Estrella Del Sur or draw
85%
Estrella Del Sur or Juventud de Bernal
77%
Draw or Juventud de Bernal
38%

Winning margin

Estrella Del Sur wins by 2+
35%
Juventud de Bernal wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Estrella Del Sur 1+ goals
82%
Estrella Del Sur 2+ goals
52%
Estrella Del Sur 3+ goals
25%
Juventud de Bernal 1+ goals
50%
Juventud de Bernal 2+ goals
16%
Juventud de Bernal 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Estrella Del Sur (draw refunded)
81%
Juventud de Bernal (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estrella Del Sur at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.46 · 13 matches

Juventud de Bernal away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.77 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estrella Del Sur attack 1.69 + Juventud de Bernal defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.73

Juventud de Bernal attack 0.95 + Estrella Del Sur defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Estrella Del Sur scores more
62%
level
23%
Juventud de Bernal scores more
15%

Estrella Del Sur at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Estrella Del Sur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Promocional Amateur: Estrella Del Sur 0–1 Juventud de Bernal

Juventud de Bernal beat Estrella Del Sur 1-0 in Torneo Promocional Amateur on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Predio Club Estrella Del Sur in Alejandro Korn, Provincia de Buenos Aires.