Estrela 1–1 Vilafranquense: Result & Stats

Estrela

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Vilafranquense

10/31/2022

Segunda Liga · Round 11Estádio Nacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Estrela43%

×Draw26%

Vilafranquense30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EstrelaExpected goals in this matchVilafranquense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.16

Estrela

1.44

Vilafranquense

1.16

Estrela creates 24% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 63 away

1.38

creates per match

1.02

1.29

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Estrela

1.38

Vilafranquense

1.02

allows per match

Estrela

1.29

Vilafranquense

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estrela+0.00on par

Vilafranquense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estrela ↓

Vilafranquense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Estrela or draw

70%

Estrela or Vilafranquense

74%

Draw or Vilafranquense

57%

Winning margin

Estrela wins by 2+

21%

Vilafranquense wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Estrela 1+ goals

76%

Estrela 2+ goals

42%

Estrela 3+ goals

18%

Vilafranquense 1+ goals

69%

Vilafranquense 2+ goals

32%

Vilafranquense 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Estrela (draw refunded)

59%

Vilafranquense (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estrela at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

Vilafranquense away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.49 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estrela attack 1.38 + Vilafranquense defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.44

Vilafranquense attack 1.02 + Estrela defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Estrela scores more

43%

level

26%

Vilafranquense scores more

30%

Estrela at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Estrela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff