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Estrela vs Boavista — Primeira Liga 2018

Estrela
Estrela
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Boavista
Boavista
12/10/2023Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 13Estádio José Gomes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Estrela41%
×Draw26%
Boavista33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estrela
1.44
Boavista
1.25

Estrela creates 15% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 119 away

creates per match

Estrela
1.21
Boavista
1.03

allows per match

Estrela
1.46
Boavista
1.68

finishing

Estrela+0.00on par
Boavista+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estrela ↓

Boavista →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Estrela or draw
67%
Estrela or Boavista
74%
Draw or Boavista
59%

Winning margin

Estrela wins by 2+
20%
Boavista wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Estrela 1+ goals
76%
Estrela 2+ goals
42%
Estrela 3+ goals
18%
Boavista 1+ goals
71%
Boavista 2+ goals
36%
Boavista 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Estrela (draw refunded)
56%
Boavista (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estrela at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.46 · 52 matches

Boavista away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.68 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estrela attack 1.21 + Boavista defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.44

Boavista attack 1.03 + Estrela defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Estrela scores more
41%
level
26%
Boavista scores more
33%

Estrela at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Estrela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Estrela 3–1 Boavista

Estrela beat Boavista 3-1 in Primeira Liga on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio José Gomes in Amadora.