Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Estrela vs Belenenses — Segunda Liga 2018

Estrela
Estrela
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Belenenses
Belenenses
4/23/2023Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 29Estádio José Gomes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Estrela41%
×Draw25%
Belenenses33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estrela
1.47
Belenenses
1.29

Estrela creates 14% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 18 away

creates per match

Estrela
1.38
Belenenses
1.28

allows per match

Estrela
1.29
Belenenses
1.56

finishing

Estrela+0.00on par
Belenenses+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estrela ↓

Belenenses →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Estrela or draw
67%
Estrela or Belenenses
75%
Draw or Belenenses
59%

Winning margin

Estrela wins by 2+
20%
Belenenses wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Estrela 1+ goals
77%
Estrela 2+ goals
43%
Estrela 3+ goals
18%
Belenenses 1+ goals
72%
Belenenses 2+ goals
37%
Belenenses 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Estrela (draw refunded)
55%
Belenenses (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estrela at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

Belenenses away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estrela attack 1.38 + Belenenses defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.47

Belenenses attack 1.28 + Estrela defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Estrela scores more
41%
level
25%
Belenenses scores more
33%

Estrela at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Estrela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Estrela vs Belenenses

Estrela beat Belenenses 2-0 in Segunda Liga on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio José Gomes in Amadora.